Parameterization and Sensitivity Analysis of a Complex Simulation Model for Mosquito Population Dynamics, Dengue Transmission, and Their Control

Alicia M. Ellis Department of Entomology, University of California Davis, Davis, California; Fogarty International Center, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, Maryland; Department of Environmental and Global Health, Emerging Pathogens Institute, University of Florida, Gainesville, Florida; Department of Geography, Emerging Pathogens Institute, University of Florida, Gainesville, Florida

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Andres J. Garcia Department of Entomology, University of California Davis, Davis, California; Fogarty International Center, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, Maryland; Department of Environmental and Global Health, Emerging Pathogens Institute, University of Florida, Gainesville, Florida; Department of Geography, Emerging Pathogens Institute, University of Florida, Gainesville, Florida

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Dana A. Focks Department of Entomology, University of California Davis, Davis, California; Fogarty International Center, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, Maryland; Department of Environmental and Global Health, Emerging Pathogens Institute, University of Florida, Gainesville, Florida; Department of Geography, Emerging Pathogens Institute, University of Florida, Gainesville, Florida

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Amy C. Morrison Department of Entomology, University of California Davis, Davis, California; Fogarty International Center, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, Maryland; Department of Environmental and Global Health, Emerging Pathogens Institute, University of Florida, Gainesville, Florida; Department of Geography, Emerging Pathogens Institute, University of Florida, Gainesville, Florida

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Thomas W. Scott Department of Entomology, University of California Davis, Davis, California; Fogarty International Center, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, Maryland; Department of Environmental and Global Health, Emerging Pathogens Institute, University of Florida, Gainesville, Florida; Department of Geography, Emerging Pathogens Institute, University of Florida, Gainesville, Florida

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Models can be useful tools for understanding the dynamics and control of mosquito-borne disease. More detailed models may be more realistic and better suited for understanding local disease dynamics; however, evaluating model suitability, accuracy, and performance becomes increasingly difficult with greater model complexity. Sensitivity analysis is a technique that permits exploration of complex models by evaluating the sensitivity of the model to changes in parameters. Here, we present results of sensitivity analyses of two interrelated complex simulation models of mosquito population dynamics and dengue transmission. We found that dengue transmission may be influenced most by survival in each life stage of the mosquito, mosquito biting behavior, and duration of the infectious period in humans. The importance of these biological processes for vector-borne disease models and the overwhelming lack of knowledge about them make acquisition of relevant field data on these biological processes a top research priority.

Author Notes

*Address correspondence to Alicia M. Ellis, Department of Entomology, University of California Davis, One Shields Ave., Davis, CA 95618. E-mail: alicia.m.ellis@gmail.com

Authors' addresses: Alicia M. Ellis and Thomas W. Scott, Department of Entomology, University of California Davis, Davis, CA, and the Fogarty International Center, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD, E-mails: alicia.m.ellis@gmail.com and twscott@caes.ucdavis.edu. Andres J. Garcia, Department of Geography, Emerging Pathogens Institute, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL, E-mail: andygarcia@gmail.com. Dana A. Focks, Department of Environmental and Global Health, Emerging Pathogens Institute, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL, E-mail: DAFocks@id-analysis.com. Amy C. Morrison, Department of Entomology, University of California Davis, Davis, CA, and Naval Medical Research Center Detachment, Washington, DC, E-mail: amy.aegypti@gmail.com.

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