Article Category:
Research Article

Effect of Socioeconomic Strata and Land Cover on Dengue Hotspots in Medellin, Colombia

Juliana Pérez-Pérez Department of Environmental and Biological Sciences, Joensuu Campus, University of Eastern Finland, Joensuu, Finland;

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John Alexander Pulgarin Diaz School of Forest Sciences, University of Eastern Finland, Joensuu, Finland;
Corporación Colombiana de Investigación Agropecuaria — AGROSAVIA, Centro de Investigación El Nus — Vereda ICA, Corregimiento San José del Nus, municipio de San Roque, Antioquia, Colombia;

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Guillermo Rúa-Uribe Grupo Entomología Médica, Facultad de Medicina, Universidad de Antioquia, Medellín, Colombia;

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Blas Mola-Yudego School of Forest Sciences, University of Eastern Finland, Joensuu, Finland;

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Eric Delmelle Biostatistics and Health Data Science, Lehigh University, Bethlehem, Pennsylvania;
Cartography and Geographic Information Systems Group, Vrije Universiteit Brussels, Brussels, Belgium;
Urban Collaborative Health, Dornsife School of Public Health, Drexel University, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania;

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Raúl Rojo Programa de Control de Vectores, Secretaría de Salud, Alcaldía de Medellín, Medellín, Colombia

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Frank Berninger Department of Environmental and Biological Sciences, Joensuu Campus, University of Eastern Finland, Joensuu, Finland;

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DOI:
https://doi.org/10.4269/ajtmh.24-0665
Volume/Issue:
Ahead of Print
Open access
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Despite extensive vector control programs, dengue remains a significant global health challenge, with outbreaks rising worldwide. Effective dengue control requires reinforcing the surveillance systems and using surveillance data to gain a better understanding of dengue dynamics at both spatial and temporal scales. We studied the effect of socioeconomic and land cover on the presence of dengue hotspots in Medellin (Colombia) from 2010 to 2020 and identified recurrent hotspots during severe epidemic (SE), epidemic (E), and non-epidemic (NE) years. We focused on spatial autocorrelation using global and local indicators of spatial association over 40,814 georeferenced dengue cases. Later, we tested if the spatial units identified as hotspots, recurrent hotspots, and non-hotspots were evenly distributed among socioeconomic strata and land cover categories. During the study period, 50% of the dengue cases were concentrated in 26% of the study area. We identified statistically significant hotspots, some recurring for up to 7 years with their spatial patterns differing between SE, E, and NE years, even though some recurred over time. Recurrent hotspots predominantly occurred in low–medium socioeconomic strata and were absent in the highest strata. Also, they predominated in human-made structures. The interaction between socioeconomic factors, land cover, and potentially, the vector presence seems to explain the spatial variation of dengue epidemics and their recurrent hotspots in Medellin.

Author Notes

Disclosures: No human subjects research was conducted. We used deidentified data, with all records labeled with anonymous codes; therefore, informed consent was not required. The authors report no conflicts of interest.

Data availability: Socioeconomic and land cover data were obtained from open data sources available through the Medellin Health Department Portal: https://www.medellin.gov.co/giscatalogacion/srv/spa/catalog.search#/home and https://www.medellin.gov.co/irj/portal/medellin?NavigationTarget=contenido/6989-Geomedellin-el-portal-de-datos-geograficos-del-Municipio-de-Medellin. Dengue case data are proprietary and available upon request from the Medellín City Secretariat of Health subject to their discretion.

Current contact information: Juliana Pérez-Pérez and Frank Berninger, Department of Environmental and Biological Sciences, Joensuu Campus, University of Eastern Finland, Joensuu, Finland, E-mails: jperezpe@uef.fi and frank.berninger@uef.fi. John Alexander Pulgarin Diaz and Blas Mola-Yudego, School of Forest Sciences, University of Eastern Finland, Joensuu, Finland, E-mails: alexander.pulgarin.diaz@uef.fi and blas.mola@uef.fi. Guillermo Rúa-Uribe, Grupo Entomología Médica, Facultad de Medicina, Universidad de Antioquia, Medellín, Colombia, E-mail: guillermo.rua@udea.edu.co. Eric Delmelle, Biostatistics and Health Data Science, Lehigh University, Bethlehem, PA, E-mail: eric.delmelle@charlotte.edu. Raúl Rojo, Programa de Control de Vectores, Secretaría de Salud, Alcaldía de Medellín, Medellín, Colombia, E-mail: raul.rojo@medellin.gov.

Address correspondence to Juliana Pérez-Pérez, Natura 368, Yliopistokatu 2, Joensuu FI-80100, Finland. E-mail: jperezpe@uef.fi
Copyright:
© The author(s) 2025
Received:
04 Oct 2024
|
Accepted:
11 Dec 2024
|
Published Online:
18 Mar 2025
Cover The American Journal of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene
The American Journal of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene
Print ISSN:
0002-9637
Online ISSN:
1476-1645
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