Who Stays and Who Goes: Predictors of Admission among Patients Presenting with Febrile Illness and a Positive Malaria Rapid Diagnostic Test in a Rural Ugandan Health Center

Jonathan L. Chang Duke University School of Medicine, Durham, North Carolina;
School of Public Health, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, North Carolina;

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Raquel Reyes Division of General Medicine and Clinical Epidemiology, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, North Carolina;

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Michael Matte Mbarara University of Science and Technology, Mbarara, Uganda;

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Moses Ntaro Mbarara University of Science and Technology, Mbarara, Uganda;

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Edgar Mulogo Mbarara University of Science and Technology, Mbarara, Uganda;

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Matthew O. Wiens Mbarara University of Science and Technology, Mbarara, Uganda;
Center for International Child Health, BC Children’s Hospital, Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada;

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Steven R. Meshnick School of Public Health, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, North Carolina;
Division of Infectious Diseases, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, North Carolina;

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Mark J. Siedner Mbarara University of Science and Technology, Mbarara, Uganda;
Massachusetts General Hospital, Boston, Massachusetts;
Harvard Medical School, Boston, Massachusetts

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Ross M. Boyce Mbarara University of Science and Technology, Mbarara, Uganda;
Division of Infectious Diseases, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, North Carolina;

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Not much is known about clinical decision-making in rural, low-resource settings regarding fever, a common reason for presentation to care. In this prospective cohort study of patients presenting with febrile illness to a rural Ugandan health center, we examined demographic and clinical factors predictive of an initial disposition of inpatient admission after clinical evaluation, but before laboratory testing. We then assessed the association of laboratory results and system factors with a change between initial and final disposition plans. Four thousand nine hundred twenty-four patients with suspected febrile illness were included in the primary analysis. The strongest predictors for an initial disposition of admission after clinical examination were impaired consciousness (adjusted risk ratio [aRR], 3.21; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 2.44–4.21) and fever on examination (aRR, 2.27; 95% CI: 1.79–2.87). Providers initially planned to discharge patients with significant vital sign abnormalities, including tachypnea (3.6%) and hypotension (1.3%). Anemia strongly predicted a final disposition of admission after an initial disposition of discharge (aRR, 48.34; 95% CI: 24.22–96.49); other laboratory abnormalities, including hypoglycemia and acidosis, did not change disposition planning. In those with an initial disposition of admission, living farther than the two neighboring villages was associated with a final disposition of discharge (aRR, 2.12; 95% CI: 1.10–4.12). A concerning number of patients with abnormal vital signs and laboratory results were not admitted for inpatient care. Geographic factors may influence a patient’s final disposition contrary to a provider’s initial disposition plan. Future work should assess longer term outcomes after discharge and a broader study population.

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Author Notes

Address correspondence to Jonathan L. Chang, Duke University School of Medicine, 16 St Elias Dr., Durham, NC 27705. E-mail: jonathan.chang@duke.edu

Financial support: This study was funded by the National Institutes of Health (MH 099916 and P30 AI060354 to M. J. S., T32 AI007151 to R. M. B.), Thrasher Research Fund (R. M. B.), Harvard Global Health Initiative (R. M. B.), and the Doris Duke Charitable Foundation (J. L. C.).

Authors’ addresses: Jonathan L. Chang, School of Medicine, Duke University, Durham, NC, E-mail: jonathan.chang@duke.edu. Raquel Reyes, Division of General Medicine and Clinical Epidemiology, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, NC, E-mail: raquel.reyes@med.unc.edu. Michael Matte, Moses Ntaro, and Edgar Mulogo, Department of Community Health, Mbarara University of Science and Technology, Mbarara, Uganda, E-mails: mattemichael18@gmail.com, ntaro2001@gmail.com, and emulogo2000@gmail.com. Matthew O. Wiens, Center for International Child Health, BC Children’s Hospital, Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada, E-mail: mowiens@outlook.com. Steven R. Meshnick, School of Public Health, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, NC, E-mail: meshnick@email.unc.edu. Mark J. Siedner, Department of Medicine, Harvard Medical School, Boston, MA, and Massachusetts General Hospital, Boston, MA, E-mail: msiedner@mgh.harvard.edu. Ross Boyce, Division of Infectious Diseases, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, NC, E-mail: ross.boyce@unchealth.unc.edu.

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