Climatic Predictors of the Intra- and Inter-Annual Distributions of Plague Cases in New Mexico Based on 29 Years of Animal-Based Surveillance Data

Heidi E. Brown Division of Vector-Borne Infectious Diseases, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Fort Collins, Colorado; Epidemiology and Response Division, New Mexico Department of Health, Santa Fe, New Mexico; Vector Control Program, New Mexico Environment Department, Santa Fe, New Mexico; Molecular Microbiology and Immunology, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, Maryland

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Paul Ettestad Division of Vector-Borne Infectious Diseases, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Fort Collins, Colorado; Epidemiology and Response Division, New Mexico Department of Health, Santa Fe, New Mexico; Vector Control Program, New Mexico Environment Department, Santa Fe, New Mexico; Molecular Microbiology and Immunology, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, Maryland

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Pamela J. Reynolds Division of Vector-Borne Infectious Diseases, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Fort Collins, Colorado; Epidemiology and Response Division, New Mexico Department of Health, Santa Fe, New Mexico; Vector Control Program, New Mexico Environment Department, Santa Fe, New Mexico; Molecular Microbiology and Immunology, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, Maryland

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Ted L. Brown Division of Vector-Borne Infectious Diseases, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Fort Collins, Colorado; Epidemiology and Response Division, New Mexico Department of Health, Santa Fe, New Mexico; Vector Control Program, New Mexico Environment Department, Santa Fe, New Mexico; Molecular Microbiology and Immunology, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, Maryland

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Elizabeth S. Hatton Division of Vector-Borne Infectious Diseases, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Fort Collins, Colorado; Epidemiology and Response Division, New Mexico Department of Health, Santa Fe, New Mexico; Vector Control Program, New Mexico Environment Department, Santa Fe, New Mexico; Molecular Microbiology and Immunology, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, Maryland

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Jennifer L. Holmes Division of Vector-Borne Infectious Diseases, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Fort Collins, Colorado; Epidemiology and Response Division, New Mexico Department of Health, Santa Fe, New Mexico; Vector Control Program, New Mexico Environment Department, Santa Fe, New Mexico; Molecular Microbiology and Immunology, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, Maryland

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Gregory E. Glass Division of Vector-Borne Infectious Diseases, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Fort Collins, Colorado; Epidemiology and Response Division, New Mexico Department of Health, Santa Fe, New Mexico; Vector Control Program, New Mexico Environment Department, Santa Fe, New Mexico; Molecular Microbiology and Immunology, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, Maryland

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Kenneth L. Gage Division of Vector-Borne Infectious Diseases, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Fort Collins, Colorado; Epidemiology and Response Division, New Mexico Department of Health, Santa Fe, New Mexico; Vector Control Program, New Mexico Environment Department, Santa Fe, New Mexico; Molecular Microbiology and Immunology, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, Maryland

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Rebecca J. Eisen Division of Vector-Borne Infectious Diseases, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Fort Collins, Colorado; Epidemiology and Response Division, New Mexico Department of Health, Santa Fe, New Mexico; Vector Control Program, New Mexico Environment Department, Santa Fe, New Mexico; Molecular Microbiology and Immunology, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, Maryland

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DOI:
https://doi.org/10.4269/ajtmh.2010.09-0247
Volume/Issue:
Volume 82: Issue 1
Page(s):
95–102
Restricted access
Get Permissions

Within the United States, the majority of human plague cases are reported from New Mexico. We describe climatic factors involved in intra- and inter-annual plague dynamics using animal-based surveillance data from that state. Unlike the clear seasonal pattern observed at lower elevations, cases occur randomly throughout the year at higher elevations. Increasing elevation corresponded with delayed mean time in case presentation. Using local meteorological data (previous year mean annual precipitation, total degrees over 27°C 3 years before and maximum winter temperatures 4 years before) we built a time-series model predicting annual case load that explained 75% of the variance in pet cases between years. Moreover, we found a significant correlation with observed annual human cases and predicted pet cases. Because covariates were time-lagged by at least 1 year, intensity of case loads can be predicted in advance of a plague season. Understanding associations between environmental and meteorological factors can be useful for anticipating future disease trends.

Author Notes

*Address correspondence to Heidi E. Brown, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), National Center for Zoonotic, Vector-Borne and Enteric Diseases, Division of Vector-Borne Infectious Diseases, 3150 Rampart Road, Foothills Campus, Fort Collins, CO 80522. E-mails: hebrown@cdc.gov or heidibrn@hotmail.com

Authors' addresses: Heidi E. Brown, Jennifer L. Holmes, Kenneth L. Gage, and Rebecca J. Eisen, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), National Center for Zoonotic, Vector-Borne and Enteric Diseases, Division of Vector-Borne Infectious Diseases, Fort Collins, CO, E-mails: HEBrown@cdc.gov, JHolmes@cdc.gov, KGage@cdc.gov, and RJEisen@cdc.gov. Paul Ettestad, Ted Brown, and Elizabeth S. Hatton, Epidemiology and Response Division, New Mexico Department of Health, Santa Fe, NM, E-mails: Paul.Ettestad@state.nm.us, brownlizard2279@msn.com, and Elizabeth.Hatton@state.nm.us. Pamela J. Reynolds, Zoonoses Program, New Mexico Department of Health, Santa Fe, NM, E-mail: thunderpass@gmail.com. Gregory E. Glass, Molecular Microbiology and Immunology, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, MD, E-mail: gglass@jhsph.edu.

Copyright:
© The American Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene 2010
Received:
07 May 2009
|
Accepted:
12 Oct 2009
|
Published Online:
05 Jan 2010
Cover The American Journal of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene
The American Journal of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene
Print ISSN:
0002-9637
Online ISSN:
1476-1645
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