Author:
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-
1.
Kugeler KJ, Staples JE, Hinckley AF, Gage KL, Mead PS, 2015. Epidemiology of human plague in the United States, 1900–2012. Emerg Infect Dis 21: 16–22.
-
2.
Eisen RJ, Gage KL, 2009. Adaptive strategies of Yersinia pestis to persist during inter-epizootic and epizootic periods. Vet Res 40: 1.
-
3.
Gage KL, Burkot TR, Eisen RJ, Hayes EB, 2008. Climate and vectorborne diseases. Am J Prev Med 35: 436–450.
-
4.
Parmenter RR, Yadav EP, Parmenter CA, Ettestad P, Gage KL, 1999. Incidence of plague associated with increased winter-spring precipitation in New Mexico. Am J Trop Med Hyg 61: 814–821.
-
5.
Enscore RE et al., 2002. Modeling relationships between climate and the frequency of human plague cases in the Southwestern United States, 1960–1997. Am J Trop Med Hyg 66: 186–196.
-
6.
Brown HE, Ettestad P, Reynolds PJ, Brown TL, Hatton ES, Holmes JL, Glass GE, Gage KL, Eisen RJ, 2010. Climatic predictors of the intra- and inter-annual distributions of plague cases in New Mexico based on 29 years of animal-based surveillance data. Am J Trop Med Hyg 82: 95–102.
-
7.
Gage KL, Kosoy MY, 2005. Natural history of plague: Perspectives from more than a century of research. Annu Rev Entomol 50: 505–528.
-
8.
R Core Team, 2023. R: A Language and Environment for Statistical Computing. Vienna, Austria: R Foundation for Statistical Computing.
-
9.
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, 2023. Climate at a Glance: Divisional Time Series. Available at: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/climate-at-a-glance/divisional/time-series. Accessed September 21, 2023.
-
10.
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, 2023. Climate Data Online Search: Daily Summaries. Available at: https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cdo-web/search. Accessed September 21, 2023.
-
11.
Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, 2024. About National Notifiable Diseases Surveillance System. Available at: https://www.cdc.gov/nndss/index.html. Accessed April 7, 2023.
-
12.
Stapp P, Antolin MF, Ball M, 2004. Patterns of extinction in prairie dog metapopulations: Plague outbreaks follow El Niño events. Front Ecol Environ 2: 235–240.
-
13.
Stenseth NC et al., 2006. Plague dynamics are driven by climate variation. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 103: 13110–13115.
-
14.
Moore SM, Monaghan A, Griffith KS, Apangu T, Mead PS, Eisen RJ, 2012. Improvement of disease prediction and modeling through the use of meteorological ensembles: Human plague in Uganda. PLoS One 7: e44431.
-
15.
Collinge SK, Johnson WC, Ray C, Matchett R, Grensten J, Cully JF, Gage KL, Kosoy MY, Loye JE, Martin AP, 2005. Testing the generality of a trophic-cascade model for plague. EcoHealth 2: 102–112.
-
16.
Ben Ari T, Gershunov A, Gage KL, Snäll T, Ettestad P, Kausrud KL, Stenseth NC, 2008. Human plague in the USA: The importance of regional and local climate. Biol Lett 4: 737–740.
-
17.
Schotthoefer AM et al., 2012. Changing socioeconomic indicators of human plague, New Mexico, USA. Emerg Infect Dis 18: 1151–1154.
-
18.
Eisen RJ et al., 2007. Human plague in the Southwestern United States, 1957–2004: Spatial models of elevated risk of human exposure to Yersinia pestis. J Med Entomol 44: 530–537.
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Revisiting the Relationship between Weather and Interannual Variation in Human Plague Cases in the Southwestern United States
Karen M. Holcomb
kholcomb@cdc.gov
Karen M. Holcomb
Division of Vector Borne Diseases, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Fort Collins, Colorado;
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Brad J. Biggerstaff
Brad J. Biggerstaff
Division of Vector Borne Diseases, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Fort Collins, Colorado;
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Michael A. Johansson
Michael A. Johansson
Division of Vector Borne Diseases, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, San Juan, Puerto Rico
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Paul S. Mead
Paul S. Mead
Division of Vector Borne Diseases, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Fort Collins, Colorado;
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Kiersten J. Kugeler
Kiersten J. Kugeler
Division of Vector Borne Diseases, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Fort Collins, Colorado;
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Rebecca J. Eisen
Rebecca J. Eisen
Division of Vector Borne Diseases, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Fort Collins, Colorado;
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ABSTRACT.
Plague is a rare, potentially fatal flea-borne zoonosis endemic in the western United States. A previous model described interannual variation in human cases based on temperature and lagged precipitation. We recreated this model in northeastern Arizona (1960–1997) to evaluate its capacity to predict recent cases (1998–2022). In recreating the original model, we found that future instead of concurrent temperature had inadvertently been used for the presented fit. Prediction from our revised models with lagged precipitation and temporally plausible temperature relationships aligned with low observed cases in 1998–2022. Elevated precipitation associated with high cases in historical data (>6 inches combined precipitation over two previous springs) was only observed once in the last quarter century, so we could not assess if these conditions were reliably associated with elevated (four or more) human plague cases. Observed weather conditions were similar to those previously associated with low (fewer than or equal to two) case counts, suggesting “baseline” conditions in the last quarter century.
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Author Notes
Disclosures: We declare that we have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper. The findings and conclusions in this report are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of CDC.
Current contact information: Karen M. Holcomb, Brad J. Biggerstaff, Paul S. Mead, Kiersten J. Kugeler, and Rebecca J. Eisen, Division of Vector Borne Diseases, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Fort Collins, CO, E-mails: kholcomb@cdc.gov, bkb5@cdc.gov, pfm0@cdc.gov, bio1@cdc.gov, and dyn2@cdc.gov. Michael A. Johansson, Division of Vector Borne Diseases, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, San Juan, Puerto Rico, E-mail: eyq9@cdc.gov.
ProCite
RefWorks
Reference Manager
BibTeX
Zotero
EndNote
-
1.
Kugeler KJ, Staples JE, Hinckley AF, Gage KL, Mead PS, 2015. Epidemiology of human plague in the United States, 1900–2012. Emerg Infect Dis 21: 16–22.
-
2.
Eisen RJ, Gage KL, 2009. Adaptive strategies of Yersinia pestis to persist during inter-epizootic and epizootic periods. Vet Res 40: 1.
-
3.
Gage KL, Burkot TR, Eisen RJ, Hayes EB, 2008. Climate and vectorborne diseases. Am J Prev Med 35: 436–450.
-
4.
Parmenter RR, Yadav EP, Parmenter CA, Ettestad P, Gage KL, 1999. Incidence of plague associated with increased winter-spring precipitation in New Mexico. Am J Trop Med Hyg 61: 814–821.
-
5.
Enscore RE et al., 2002. Modeling relationships between climate and the frequency of human plague cases in the Southwestern United States, 1960–1997. Am J Trop Med Hyg 66: 186–196.
-
6.
Brown HE, Ettestad P, Reynolds PJ, Brown TL, Hatton ES, Holmes JL, Glass GE, Gage KL, Eisen RJ, 2010. Climatic predictors of the intra- and inter-annual distributions of plague cases in New Mexico based on 29 years of animal-based surveillance data. Am J Trop Med Hyg 82: 95–102.
-
7.
Gage KL, Kosoy MY, 2005. Natural history of plague: Perspectives from more than a century of research. Annu Rev Entomol 50: 505–528.
-
8.
R Core Team, 2023. R: A Language and Environment for Statistical Computing. Vienna, Austria: R Foundation for Statistical Computing.
-
9.
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, 2023. Climate at a Glance: Divisional Time Series. Available at: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/climate-at-a-glance/divisional/time-series. Accessed September 21, 2023.
-
10.
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, 2023. Climate Data Online Search: Daily Summaries. Available at: https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cdo-web/search. Accessed September 21, 2023.
-
11.
Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, 2024. About National Notifiable Diseases Surveillance System. Available at: https://www.cdc.gov/nndss/index.html. Accessed April 7, 2023.
-
12.
Stapp P, Antolin MF, Ball M, 2004. Patterns of extinction in prairie dog metapopulations: Plague outbreaks follow El Niño events. Front Ecol Environ 2: 235–240.
-
13.
Stenseth NC et al., 2006. Plague dynamics are driven by climate variation. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 103: 13110–13115.
-
14.
Moore SM, Monaghan A, Griffith KS, Apangu T, Mead PS, Eisen RJ, 2012. Improvement of disease prediction and modeling through the use of meteorological ensembles: Human plague in Uganda. PLoS One 7: e44431.
-
15.
Collinge SK, Johnson WC, Ray C, Matchett R, Grensten J, Cully JF, Gage KL, Kosoy MY, Loye JE, Martin AP, 2005. Testing the generality of a trophic-cascade model for plague. EcoHealth 2: 102–112.
-
16.
Ben Ari T, Gershunov A, Gage KL, Snäll T, Ettestad P, Kausrud KL, Stenseth NC, 2008. Human plague in the USA: The importance of regional and local climate. Biol Lett 4: 737–740.
-
17.
Schotthoefer AM et al., 2012. Changing socioeconomic indicators of human plague, New Mexico, USA. Emerg Infect Dis 18: 1151–1154.
-
18.
Eisen RJ et al., 2007. Human plague in the Southwestern United States, 1957–2004: Spatial models of elevated risk of human exposure to Yersinia pestis. J Med Entomol 44: 530–537.
| Past two years | Past Year | Past 30 Days | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Abstract Views | 1513 | 1513 | 100 |
| Full Text Views | 96 | 96 | 14 |
| PDF Downloads | 122 | 122 | 18 |